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Summer 2020 U.S. Temperature Outlook by US Air

- May 5, 2020



Warmer-than-average conditions expected for most of the lower 48 states. Temperatures will be near to above average in May, except for parts of North Dakota and Minnesota.

The Northeast and mid-Atlantic can expect above-average temperatures from June through August. Above-average temperatures will also cover Central Texas into the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures will be very above average from eastern Washington and eastern Oregon into Idaho, western Montana, western Wyoming, northern Utah and northeastern Nevada this summer.

Areas from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest and upper Mississippi Valley, as well as in Southern California, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona, may have temperatures near average or slightly warmer during the summer months of 2020.

One factor that suggests it will be a hot summer for most of the U.S. is sea-surface temperature changes that are expected to develop in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean.

Computer models suggest this trend may continue into the summer, which may lead to La Niña conditions developing later this year. A hot summer is often observed in the U.S. when a shift toward La Niña occurs.

Climate models also suggest an unusually warm summer, especially across the West and Northeast, which is reflected in this outlook.

Here’s a closer look at what to expect month by month from May through August.

May 2020

The last month of spring will have temperatures near average or slightly warmer from the Northeast and mid-Atlantic into the Midwest, as well as along the West Coast. Above-average temperatures are expected to stretch from the Southeast into the Southern Plains and the interior West.

Meanwhile, the upper-level pattern will likely bring cooler temperatures to portions of northern North Dakota and northern Minnesota. There is a chance that May might be cooler than the current forecast, especially across parts of the northern tier.

June 2020

Most areas east of the Mississippi River are expected to experience temperatures near average or slightly warmer as summer begins. The exception will be the Florida Peninsula, which may continue to trend above average.

Most of the West will have above-average temperatures, with temperatures the farthest above average from central Washington into central Montana and southward into northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico.

July 2020

The one area of the Lower 48 that may trend near average to slightly cooler will be from far Southern California into southwestern Arizona. Otherwise, much of California and the Southwest, as well as areas from the upper Midwest into the South, will have temperatures near average or slightly warmer.

Above-average temperatures are expected for the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, as well as from the western High Plains into the Northwest, with much-above-average temperatures from Washington into central Montana and northwestern Wyoming.

August 2020

Most of the Lower 48 will likely have above-average conditions as the summer ends. Temperatures will be the farthest above average in parts of the Northwest.

A few areas may trend near average or slightly warmer. This includes locations near the Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the north-central U.S. and parts of the Southwest.

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