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Fall Forecast for the HVAC Contractor

Though a warmer-than-normal start of fall 2021 was predicted, November begins to make the shift to cooler-than-normal temperatures, on average across most of the United States. Here’s a sneak peek of the long-range forecast for this fall.


While most of fall will have warmer-than-normal temperatures, a shift will begin in mid-November in many areas. We’ll start the descent into winter so make sure you have your warmer clothes ready this year.

November temperatures will be cooler than normal, on average, across most of the United States, although the Pacific states will generally feature above-normal temperatures. Precipitation will be above normal in the Gulf Coast states. Expect to see the shift to average temperatures in many regions by mid-November when there could be several freezes, and then a shift to below-average temperatures by late November.


Here are some highlights for holidays and calendar days:

  • On November 2, Election Dayin the United States, chilly temperatures will be the rule in the East, with mild to warm temps arriving across the central and western states. Snow showers will dot the skies in Alaska and the northeast quarter of the nation. Elsewhere, mostly dry weather will prevail.
  • Daylight Savings Timeends at 2:00 A.M. on November 7 in those areas where it is in effect. If you stay awake until then, you’ll see rain and snow showers in the Northeast; snow showers from Oklahoma into the High Plains; and rainy periods in the southeastern, Intermountain, and Pacific states, which will also be around on Veterans Day.
  • Of course, November 11 is Veterans Day. Most of the region will have dry weather with rather mild temperatures on this holiday.
  • November 25 is Thanksgiving and the start of a 4-day weekend that includes Black Friday. Expect flurries and cold temperatures from the Northeast westward to the Intermountain region; rainy periods from Florida into the Deep South and Texas; rain and snow in Alaska; showers in Hawaii; and mainly dry weather elsewhere.

Looking ahead to winter, important factors will include a weak La Niña, a continued warm phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a neutral to positive phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the early stages of its warm cycle. Oscillations are linked ocean-atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years. This should lead to a colder-than-normal winter across most of the U.S.


For most of the fall season, temperatures across the United States will be warmer than normal in the Intermountain, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions.

Precipitation will be above normal in the Northeast and Delmarva; from the eastern Great Lakes southwestward to the Tennessee Valley; and in southern Texas, the southern and central High Plains, the western Desert Southwest, the Pacific Southwest, and southern Alaska. They will be near or below normal elsewhere.

DatesWeather Conditions
Nov 1-3Sunny, warm
Nov 4-8Rainy periods
Nov 9-16Isolated showers, warm
Nov 17-30Sunny, mild
Novembertemperature 61° (1° above avg. north, 5° above south)
precipitation 0.8″ (1″ below avg. north, 0.5″ below south)


DatesWeather Conditions
Dec 1-5Scattered showers, warm
Dec 6-14Sunny; cool north, warm south
Dec 15-21Sunny, cool
Dec 22-31Rainy periods, some heavy; cool
Decembertemperature 56° (2° above avg.)
precipitation 3″ (2″ above avg. coast, avg. inland)