Though a warmer-than-normal start of fall 2021 was predicted, November begins to make the shift to cooler-than-normal temperatures, on average across most of the United States. Here’s a sneak peek of the long-range forecast for this fall.
While most of fall will have warmer-than-normal temperatures, a shift will begin in mid-November in many areas. We’ll start the descent into winter so make sure you have your warmer clothes ready this year.
November temperatures will be cooler than normal, on average, across most of the United States, although the Pacific states will generally feature above-normal temperatures. Precipitation will be above normal in the Gulf Coast states. Expect to see the shift to average temperatures in many regions by mid-November when there could be several freezes, and then a shift to below-average temperatures by late November.
Here are some highlights for holidays and calendar days:
Looking ahead to winter, important factors will include a weak La Niña, a continued warm phase in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a neutral to positive phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the early stages of its warm cycle. Oscillations are linked ocean-atmosphere patterns that influence the weather over periods of weeks to years. This should lead to a colder-than-normal winter across most of the U.S.
For most of the fall season, temperatures across the United States will be warmer than normal in the Intermountain, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions.
Precipitation will be above normal in the Northeast and Delmarva; from the eastern Great Lakes southwestward to the Tennessee Valley; and in southern Texas, the southern and central High Plains, the western Desert Southwest, the Pacific Southwest, and southern Alaska. They will be near or below normal elsewhere.
|NOVEMBER 2021 LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST FOR PACIFIC SOUTHWEST|
|Nov 1-3||Sunny, warm|
|Nov 4-8||Rainy periods|
|Nov 9-16||Isolated showers, warm|
|Nov 17-30||Sunny, mild|
|November||temperature 61° (1° above avg. north, 5° above south)|
precipitation 0.8″ (1″ below avg. north, 0.5″ below south)
|DECEMBER 2021 LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECAST FOR PACIFIC SOUTHWEST|
|Dec 1-5||Scattered showers, warm|
|Dec 6-14||Sunny; cool north, warm south|
|Dec 15-21||Sunny, cool|
|Dec 22-31||Rainy periods, some heavy; cool|
|December||temperature 56° (2° above avg.)|
precipitation 3″ (2″ above avg. coast, avg. inland)